CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 15 Aug 06:00 - Tue 16 Aug 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 14 Aug 23:28 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across central and eastern Italy, the western and central Balkans and southeastern Hungary.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC... at mid-levels... south of a zonal jet over northern Europe, a low over the Alpine countries is expected to move southeastward and reach central Croatia Tuesday morning. A warm and moist air-mass is ...intially present over central and southern Italy and the Balkans... is replaced by colder air behind a poorly defined cold front that moves southeastward in concert with the mid-level low.

DISCUSSION

...Italy, Balkans...
A northwesterly to westerly jet streak persists at the southern and southwestern flank of the upper low. A rather favourable setup for severe convective storms is expected ahead of the cold front, where 20 m/s 0-6 km shear, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and forcing for vertical motion should be juxtaposed. The storms will likely produce some severe gusts and locally some large hail. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, altough shear parameters are relatively marginal for tornado development. A somewhat elevated risk may exist over south eastern Hungary, eastern Serbia and Montenegro and extreme western Romania, where somewhat stronger low-level shear is forecast than elsewhere.

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